2 € OR NOT 2 €

Wittingly or not, President Rumen Radev joined forces with the extremist Vazrazhdane, or Revival, party. Without any immediate motive but with a sense of urgency he called for a referendum on whether Bulgaria should adopt the euro. Just a few years previously, Radev was a staunch opponent of any such referendum. What caused the volte-face?

Demanding referenda on issues related to the EU and the West in general is a lynchpin of Kostadin "Kostya Kopeykin" Kostadinov's, the leader of Revival, whose followers are attracted by his unabashedly
pro-Russian, pro-Putin and generally anti- what has become known as the collective West rhetoric. Calling for referenda, or "direct democracy," is a cornerstone of what many Bulgarians see as his unbridled populism.

However, as every underclassman of political science knows, referenda may indeed be an overt manifestation of the will of the people, but they can also be a double-edged sword. In Europe, some countries use referenda on an almost monthly basis (Switzerland), others limit them to more significant issues (Denmark – with caveats: the state budget, citizenship and a few others cannot be put to a popular ballot), and yet others (the UK) reserve them only for crucial matters, e.g. Brexit. Other countries never resort to them. Referenda are anti-constitutional in Germany, obviously owing to that country's 20th century history.

Where does Bulgaria stand? Historically, there have been just a handful of national referenda in this country. In 1922 Bulgarians voted in favour of bringing to justice those responsible for what has gone down in history as the National Catastrophes (Bulgaria's defeats in the Balkan Wars and the Great War). In 1946 Bulgaria, which at the time was rapidly becoming a hardline Stalinist state, voted 95.6 percent in favour of abolishing the monarchy and establishing a "people's republic." In 1971, 99.6 percent of the Bulgarians approved a new Constitution which cemented the "leading role" of the Communist Party.

With Communism now gone, to set off a referendum in this country you need to collect at least 500,000 signatures. To make the outcome of the referendum legally binding, two conditions need to be fulfilled. The number of people going to the ballots should at least equal the number of people who cast their votes at the previous general election. Then 50 percent plus one will validate the vote. If the number of voters going to the ballots is less than what is constitutionally required but over 20 percent, and if at least 50 percent plus one of those 20 percent have voted in favour, the issue at stake should go back to the National Assembly for further deliberations.

In 2013, a referendum on whether to construct a second nuclear power plant at Belene failed. A 2015 referendum on whether to allow casting election ballots electronically also failed. And so did a 2016 referendum on whether to make voting compulsory and swap the current proportionate system of representation with a first-past-the-post ballot.

Against this background the call of President Rumen Radev for a referendum is at least odd. Though he promptly introduced his demand to the National Assembly, parliamentary speaker Natalia Kiselova, a professor of law, was quick to reject it, citing it contravened the Constitution. Her legal team explained a referendum could not be held on an issue dating back to 2007, when Bulgaria signed its accession treaty with the EU, as EU law had precedence over national legislation. Radev was furious and promptly complained to the Constitutional Court. According to legal experts, the Constitutional Court is unlikely to overrule the National Assembly.

However, Vazrazhdane and a number of small anti-system parties in parliament took up President Radev's demands to boost their own agendas with. Grand meetings at which Vazrazhdane supporters wave Bulgarian and Russian flags, sing the Communist-era Bulgarian national anthem (which puts in rhyme Moscow as an eternal friend in peace and war) and fiercely stand up for what they call the "last battle for Bulgaria" are being organised. Mass rallies and possibly civil disobedience may be in the offing. If Vazrazhdane's past tactics are anything to go by, they probably are.

Significantly, as many as 63 percent of the Bulgarians are in favour of holding a referendum on the euro, according to a poll conducted by Myara, or Measure, a polling agency. Of those polled almost 60 percent reject the introduction of the euro while only 35% are in favour.

Such figures seem at least strange against the background of the continued approval of the EU as such: 64 percent of those polled have a positive attitude to Brussels whereas just 25.5 percent are critical.

The explanation may in actual fact be quite simple. In a country where conspiracy theories proliferate and distrust of any and all agencies of the state is perpetually high, voters tend to make decisions with their hearts rather than with their minds.

Bulgaria's indisputable achievements in its EU and NATO integration may be fading in the face of such a powerful national symbol as the lev, the national currency. Fears of prices going up exponentially and a new bout of inflation as a result of the  introduction of the euro may have little to do with reality, but they are a potent weapon in the hands of unscrupulous politicians masquerading as "patriots." Coupled with the apparent failure of the government to conduct a meaningful information campaign about what the introduction of the euro really means for ordinary citizens these attitudes are music to the ears of Kostadin Kostadinov and his ilk as they indicate Bulgarians are malleable material in the case of anyone who pretends to be standing up for their "national honour."

The main issue here, as anyone old enough to have lived through the 1990s will recollect, is not about the euro at all. The euro is already the Bulgarian currency in fact if not in name. As early as 1996, in an attempt to hamper hyperinflation, the then government introduced a currency board. It meant the Bulgarian lev was pegged to what at the time was the German mark. As the German mark became a part of history with the introduction of the euro in 2000, the lev was automatically pegged to the euro. Whether you now pay in lev or euro bills is immaterial. You pay in the same currency as the lev strictly follows the euro exchange rate on the world market.

Ironically, one of the architects of the currency board, US economist Professor Steve Hanke, now campaigns for the rejection of the euro in Bulgaria.