BULGARIA U-TURNS ON UKRAINE?

Bulgaria, led by Former President and incumbent Prime Minister Rumen Radev, became one of  only four European states – the others being Malta, Slovakia and Hungary – not to endorse the foundation of an ad hoc special tribunal to indict Russia's Vladimir Putin and his lieutenants for their aggression against Ukraine. The signatories to the act include Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Republic of Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine and the UK. Even non-European countries, such as Australia and Costa Rica, joined.

And Bulgaria's Defence Minister Dimitar Stoyanov said Bulgaria will no longer provide armaments to Ukriane.

As was to be expected, these two developments, perhaps the most notable ones during Radev and his Progressive Bulgaria's first month in office, instantly caused yet another division in Bulgarian society. Preoccupied with the galloping inflation, the cost of living, the discovery of a completely illegal settlement near Varna – which cries corruption left, right and centre and which is owned by a shady Ukrainian entrepreneur – and the latest traffic accidents many Bulgarians cannot care less about Ukraine. They saluted. And they intoned that Radev was living up to his election pledges. The war (in Ukraine) must stop through diplomacy rather than through warfare, Radev had chanted, and the Bulgarians who voted his party into office with a first-past-the-post majority applauded.

On the other hand, his critics, grouped mainly in a loose alliance billed by themselves the "democratic community," were appalled. In a characteristically alarmist fashion they cried Radev was, as they had predicted, changing Bulgaria's "geopolitical orientation." If he were not starting the process of brining this country back to Communism, he would at best be making it a copycat of Orban's Hungary.

None of these suppositions is correct.

What are the facts? While it is true that Radev did not subscribe to the international tribunal against Putin, which at least at this stage in history has a moral rather than a practical value, he, significantly, did not block the continued – and enhanced – EU sanctions against Russia (as Orban would have done). From the standpoint of domestic politics and its PR, he balanced between his Progressive Bulgaria supporters (who include many who consider Russia a historical friend) and the EU (which has made supporting Ukraine against Putin a top priority of its foreign policy).

Regarding the Bulgarian military supplies to Ukraine. First of all, it is unknown whether Ukraine has requested any renewed assistance in the fist place. Most of its weaponry on commission is already Western-made and it is unclear whether Ukraine wants any Bulgarian hardware. It does want munitions, however. And Bulgaria is uniquely positioned to supply those as no other EU country actually manufactures Warsaw Pact-era bullets and explosives needed by the Ukrainian forces.

It is important to know in this respect that so far Bulgaria has been a major supplier of munitions to Ukrainian on a paid basis. The booming trade in munitions has not been direct. In keeping with established practices, Bulgaria has sold its wares through middlemen, mostly in Poland and Germany. This will not cease because if it did, the booming Bulgarian military-industrial complex will find itself without a major customer.

To put it in another way, what Prime Minister Radev has said and done about Bulgaria's continued commitment to Ukraine can best be described with the English saying to make an omelette while keeping the eggs intact. Therefore, whether this is a balancing political act or double standards depends on whoever does the talking.