NEW SNAP ELECTION LOOMS ON HORIZON

As the seventh general election in two years seems unavoidable, Bulgaria is faced with yet another uncertainty. Will the Constitutional Court approve or reject the changes to the basic law pushed through at the end of 2023 at the insistence of the now besmirched PP-DB-DSB, or Changes Continued-Yes Bulgaria-Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria, but accepted with the support of other political parties, including Boyko Borisov's GERB and the Turkish-dominated DPS, or Movement for Rights and Freedoms, that the PP-DB-DSB had been representing as their chief political foes?

Firstly, what were the changes? When the DB came into existence in 2017, its leader, Hristo Ivanov, pushed for what he called essential judicial reforms, including amendments to the Constitution. Ivanov and his allies failed in their attempts until 2023, when a unlikely – some say unholy – alliance in the Bulgarian National Assembly was mustered to pass the changes. The supporters of the DB were jubilant, but critics pointed out the amendments, which concerned mainly the Constitutional rights of the president to appoint caretaker governments, were hasty and badly thoughtover. They may have been right.

As soon as the PP-DB-DSB-dominated "fixture," as the Nikolay Denkov government called itself, collapsed, in March 2024, the amendments backfired. In keeping with them, the volition of the president, who is supposed to appoint a caretaker government in such instances, was hampered to individuals whose public positions were named in the amendments. As it happened, none of them, except the current interim Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev, were able or willing to take up the new job. Significantly, as the PP-DB-DSB were quick to find out, they all belonged to parties the PP-DB-DSB wanted to avoid.

President Rumen Radev complained to the Constitutional Court about the amendments.

The Constitutional Court has two issues on its hands. First, were the PP-DB-DSB amendments passed in keeping with established parliamentary procedures? Second, and more important, could a regular parliament, rather than a Constituent National Assembly, be making such changes in the first place?

The Constitutional Court is expected to pass its judgment in August. Who will govern Bulgaria in the runup to the next general election depends on that judgment.

The other major development in post-4 June election Bulgaria is the apparent split in the DPS. Ever since its foundation in the salad days of Bulgarian post-Communist democracy the DPS has been ruled by its founder, Ahmed Dogan. In 2013 Ahmed Dogan stepped down as a retiree, but remained an "honorary" chairman of the DPS. Since early 2024 the DPS has been managed jointly by Dzhevdet Chakurov and the Magnitsky Act-sanctioned Delyan Peevski, but observers unanimously agree that the real force directing and managing the party all along has been Ahmed Dogan.

As the DPS was originally conceived as a party to protect the rights and freedoms of Bulgaria's Muslims, it has been seen as pretty monolithic, perhaps the most stable political party in this country. Through the years there have been various attempts to splinter the DPS into smaller factions, but they have all failed. The DPS voter base, which includes an increasing number of non-Muslim Bulgarians, has remained more or less constant through the years. The DPS usually commands the third or the fourth place in the National Assembly, but the 4 June 2024 election propelled it to the second place, just after Boyko Borisov's GERB.

The biggest surprise that analysts are still unable to explain is the split of the DPS that occurred in July. Earlier, Peevski had urged the DPS MPs to support the GERB-proposed government while Ahmed Dogan favoured rejection. The spat between Peevski and Dogan exacerbated when a number of DPS MPs said they would go along with Peevski. Ahmed Dogan was quick to start a campaign to reassert his command of the DPS. Letters of support from local DPS organisations started to flow in. Carefully orchestrated public appearances and media events were meant to convince the DPS would remain unscathed and Peevski would be on his way out.

It remains to be seen to what extent Delyan Peevski, whose critics vilify as the father of all latterday corruption in Bulgaria, will be able to stand in opposition to Ahmed Dogan. But at least at the end of July 2024 most indications suggest the "honorary" chairman of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms remains firmly in control.

With that in mind, the upcoming snap election is unlikely to produce results very different from the 4 June ballot.